Problems of foreign migration to Russia: economic aspect

Migration for Russia is a natural process. You will no longer surprise anyone with citizens of a different nationality who perform repair work, work in the service sector, or simply trade in the market. It’s easy to explain: even despite the crisis throughout the world, our country is one of the five countries that most attract migrants.

The USA and Canada also appear in leading positions on the list. The mechanism for receiving such citizens is different in each territory. If in the United States you need to pass many commissions and prove your qualifications, then you can simply come to Russia without education or even basic knowledge of the Russian language.

This situation is quite complicated, because there is a benefit for both parties. Our country receives a labor force that is profitable from an economic point of view, and migrants have the opportunity to gain ways for development and improve living conditions. But today, in 2021, the number of foreign citizens who entered Russia to obtain permanent residence is 6 million people.

Statistics show that about 60% of them entered the country illegally or their permits have already expired. Therefore, the latest news from the FSGS speaks of a number of changes in migration legislation. Many amendments began to take effect in 2021, some have been postponed until 2021. Only one thing is clear: in terms of “work front”, these changes are the most global in Russia.

Migration Challenges: The Root Cause of Change

In 2021, the situation has developed that illegally arrived citizens, due to ignorance of the language and the rules of law in Russia, interact with society and become the cause of a lot of problems. According to statistics, over the past few years the number of crimes committed by immigrants from other states on our territory has increased. This includes fraud, inconsistency of migration documents, theft, and vandalism.

It became clear that the problematic issue, or more precisely how migration affects the internal life of Russia, represents a very serious conflict of interests. Moreover, many experts predict that the flow of migrating citizens will only increase in the coming year. This is due to the difficult economic and political situation in the world. Conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, a widespread deterioration in the standard of living in countries less developed compared to the Russian Federation - these are all the reasons why people so want to get to Russian territory, and 2021 has become confirmation of this. That is why there was a need for stricter control of citizens and changes in the legislative framework.

Migration: continuing trends

Long-term migration

The scale of long-term international migration (Rosstat counts as long-term migrants all those registered at their place of residence and place of stay for a period of 9 months or more) has been at a fairly stable level over the past few years, and the beginning of 2021 is no exception.
In the first quarter of 2021, 122.3 thousand international migrants arrived in Russia, which is 10.8 thousand people, or 8.1% less than in the corresponding period of 2021. The number of those leaving Russia for other countries, on the contrary , increased by 8.3 thousand, or 7.3%. Population growth due to migration in the first quarter amounted to 52.1 thousand people, decreasing by 19.1 thousand, or 26.8% compared to the first quarter of 2021. On average for 2011-2016. The migration increase in the first quarter was 55.4 thousand, so the data for 2021 practically do not stand out in any way compared to recent years. In addition, quarterly data is characterized by significant volatility. Typically, migration growth in the first quarter is lower than in the following ones, but in 2010 and 2021, on the contrary, the first quarter stood out with the highest values. Data on the number of arrivals and departures of international migrants in Russia in 2010 show both quarterly fluctuations in indicators (Fig. 1) and a general stabilization of their values ​​starting in 2014 (after a period of growth starting in 2011 as a result of the reform statistical accounting).

International migration in Russia, quarterly data, thousand people

The reduction in the migration growth of the Russian population in the first quarter of 2017 is primarily due to the reduction in the contribution to it of the main donor in recent years - Ukraine (by 40% compared to 2015-2016). The number of people who have received temporary asylum in Russia is also decreasing - after a sharp aggravation of the situation in Ukraine in 2014-2015, there is no mass influx of forced migrants into Russian territory. Compared to 2012-2013 Migration growth with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan has not recovered in its previous volumes, the migration influx from Kazakhstan has been stable, and the positive balance of migration has increased only with Tajikistan (Table 1).

Migration increase/loss in international migration, 1st quarter, 2012-2017, thousand people

A positive balance of migration with non-CIS countries (which also includes Georgia in recent years) remains – 1.9 thousand people in the first quarter, while the dynamics of migration indicators with individual countries is multidirectional. The quality of accounting for this migration is questionable; departures from Russia, based on data from receiving countries, are undercounted.

Thus, international long-term migration retains its role in the demographic development of Russia, ensuring population growth. The main donors of migration are still dominated by the CIS countries, and for the last three years - Ukraine.

In the first quarter of 2021, migration within Russia compared to the corresponding period last year decreased by 19.6 thousand people, or 2.3%. Growth in recorded volumes of internal migration during 2011-2015. as a result of accounting reform, it has now completely ceased. The scale of internal migration at the level of 4 million per year can remain for a long time, given that throughout the 2000s, despite strong economic growth and the subsequent crisis of 2008-2009. they practically did not react to changes in the socio-economic situation in the country.

The decrease in the balance of migration growth in Russia in the first quarter of 2017 affected the migration balance of federal districts and individual regions of the country. The outflow of population from the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (-4.6 thousand in 2021 against -3.0 in 2021), the Siberian Federal District (-5.0 against -0.5 thousand), the Volga Federal District (-7 .4 versus -2.7 thousand), migration growth in the regions of the Ural, Southern and, slightly, Central Federal District decreased.

Among the centers of attraction for migrants, Moscow and the Moscow region (increase of 33.7 thousand), St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region (20.0 thousand), Krasnodar Territory (8.3 thousand) still stand out; a number of other centers of gravity are Sevastopol and the Republic of Crimea), Voronezh, Novosibirsk and Tyumen regions.

Growth due to international migration is distributed evenly across regions, while internal interregional migration contributes to the concentration of the population in a small and fairly constant number of the most attractive regions, repeating the trends of previous years. In the first quarter of 2021, there were 36 regions with a total positive migration balance (of which 16 had an increase in intra-Russian migration); in the first quarter of 2021, their number decreased to 32 (15, respectively).

Temporary migration

The beginning of 2021 did not demonstrate any change in the trend of the last two years: the total number of foreigners staying (for any purpose) in Russia is decreasing, but without sharp jumps. However, an earlier and statistically pronounced, compared to previous years, seasonal increase in the indicator indicates the preservation and even, perhaps, partial restoration of the attractiveness of Russia as a receiving country for migrants (Fig. 2). By June 1, there were 9.96 million foreigners in the Russian Federation (a year earlier – 9.90). The main contribution to the growth of the indicator was made by labor migrants (in particular, the increase in the number of those staying for this purpose - 300 thousand, tourists - by 65 thousand, for study - by 56 thousand, for commercial purposes - by 11 thousand).

Stay of foreign citizens in Russia at the end of the month, million people, 2013-2017.

The overwhelming majority of foreigners staying in Russia are still citizens of the CIS (86%), as of June 1 there were 8.6 million people. The most widely represented are immigrants from Central Asia and Ukraine (Table 2).

Stay of foreign citizens from the CIS in the Russian Federation as of date, people

By 2021, the potential for growth in the number of foreign contingents from the EAEU countries is practically exhausted, the only exception is Kyrgyzstan: the number of immigrants from this country is increasing, they are already the fifth largest among all CIS countries. As expected, the number of Ukrainian citizens is gradually decreasing (some receive Russian citizenship, some return home or reorient themselves to other directions of labor migration). The volume of temporary migration from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is slowly beginning to grow, but it is still far from reaching the 2014 level.

Changes in the stay of foreigners from developed Western countries in the Russian Federation are almost imperceptible: their number still lags behind the pre-crisis 2014 indicators by more than 2.5 times, and in individual countries (Italy, Spain, USA, UK) by 3-3 times. 7 times (Table 3). However, there was no further drop in the indicator in 2021, and the number of citizens of Western countries in Russia has stabilized at a low level. Weak growth in Germany, Spain, and France is driven almost exclusively by tourists.

Stay of foreign citizens from some EU countries and the USA in the Russian Federation as of date, people

By the beginning of summer, there were 4.2 million labor migrants in Russia (who indicated the purpose of “employment” upon entry), which was 300 thousand more than a year earlier (3.9 million as of June 1, 2021), 96% of These are labor migrants from the CIS countries, and it is they who ensured the growth of the indicator, while the flow from non-CIS countries, on the contrary, decreased. The only countries within the CIS from which there are fewer labor migrants are Ukraine and Moldova.

As of June 1, 2021, labor migrants had 1.7 million valid work permits (work permits and patents), and almost 1 million more had the right to work without such documents (citizens of the EAEU countries). Thus, about 64% of all foreign labor migrants had the potential to work legally (this is slightly higher than last year – by 3%).

In general, the desire of labor migrants to be legalized on the labor market in Russia in 2021 was more clearly evident (Table 4), and although the total number of completed documents is still two times lower than the level of 2014, it exceeded the figure for 2021. Apparently, migrants are gradually adapting to new migration rules (introduced in 2015, in particular, we are talking about replacing work permits with patents for migrants from visa-free countries), and to the new economic reality, which cannot be said about Russian employers, who, on the contrary, are in no hurry register migrants: the number of notifications sent by them about concluding contracts with foreign workers has decreased compared to the same period last year.

Registration of permits for migrants to work in the Russian Federation, January-May, person

* - from January 1, 2015, only IGs from visa countries are issued

** - from January 1, 2015, IGs are issued from visa-free countries to work for both individuals and legal entities

Over the 5 months of 2021, migrants transferred 18.8 billion rubles to regional budgets. (advance tax payments for patents), last year for the same period - 17.1 billion; to an increasing extent, these payments are provided by migrants from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (86%; a year earlier - 82%).

The authors are leading researchers at the Laboratory for Research on Demography, Migration and the Labor Market at INSAP RANEPA

Read “Monitoring the economic situation in Russia” No. 12 (50), June 2021.

Labor migration: changes and latest news

Most often, labor migration is typical for Russia. In simple terms, people come to the country to find a new job. According to statistics in 2021, the countries for whose residents migration to Russia is the most typical include:

1. Uzbekistan (more than 2 million people).
2. Ukraine (more than 2 million).
3. Tajikistan (about a million).
4. Kazakhstan (45 thousand).
5. Armenia (30-35 thousand).

In 2021, the number of citizens from Ukraine is expected to only grow. Therefore, it is important to know the changes that were made to the legislation in 2015. Punishments for violating the rules of stay in the country have also become tougher. For example, the amount of fines has increased. In some cases, people are deported home for up to 10 years without the right to review.

Where do Russians most often travel?

To have a more complete understanding of the most popular migration directions, you should understand where this process originates in Russia. This phenomenon was given official status in the 19th century by a special decree of Alexander the First. Until a powerful power called the USSR appeared on the world map, historians identified 4 waves of migration:

• Jewish;
• labor;
• political;
• religious.

After the October Revolution died down, only officials who had a special document confirming this possibility received permission to leave. Without it, any attempt to leave the homeland was considered an escape, and the relatives of the fugitive were subjected to severe repression.

The Soviet period was also divided into several stages, and the total number of emigrants from Russia at that time exceeded all previously existing indicators. The most popular destinations were the USA and Europe.

The modern era (the beginning of the 21st century) is characterized by a massive brain drain, the reason for which was low wages and a lack of funding for scientific and other fields of knowledge in Russia.

Today's situation has acquired slightly different facets. Everyone who wants to settle in a foreign territory can be divided into several groups:

• students who want to get an education abroad and stay there to build a brilliant career;
• workers seeking higher earnings and the prospect of a better life for their family;
• investors attracted by a healthier economy.

Global emigration statistics show that over the past few years, countries with unfavorable living conditions have become the main exporters of migrants:

• on the territory of which military operations are taking place (Syria, Afghanistan);
• with low economic growth (third world countries);
• neighbors of more developed countries (for example, the flow of migrants from Ukraine to neighboring Poland has increased significantly).

Today, moving to another state can be easily accomplished by any Russian with an average income, having successfully chosen the appropriate migration program. Statistics on emigration from Russia in 2017 state that the most popular destinations were:

• USA;
• Germany;
• Canada;
• Israel;
• Great Britain;
• Finland;
• Australia.

Spain, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Norway, and New Zealand are no less in demand among Russians. This demand was ensured by a more stable economy and the opportunity to realize oneself professionally. It is for this reason that most migrants rely on their education and work experience. Moreover, most status states are actively developing programs to attract specialists in professions in demand on their territories.

The choice of country for migration largely depends on the complexity of the legalization process.

So, for example, it is much more difficult to settle in Japan, since the authorities of this country believe that they have enough of their own people, and therefore treat foreigners with extreme caution.

Other states are less formalistic and in some cases are ready, so to speak, to sell their passport for certain investments. For example, in Spain you only need to purchase real estate worth 500 thousand euros, and the residence permit of this country is in your pocket.

The Asian destination – Thailand, Vietnam – is no less attractive for Russians. Firstly, you can enter here without a visa. Secondly, the cost of living is several times lower than in Russia. This applies to everything from food to housing. The only problem is work. The salary level is also much lower, and therefore you have to carefully work out your self-employment plan.

Statistics

Giving an exact schedule of emigration from Russia by year is quite a difficult task. This is due to the fact that Russian government services cannot state with utmost accuracy exactly how many Russians have left their homeland. Usually all the figures are provided by Rosstat, which receives them from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which, in turn, obtains the data from the migration service.

The latter only comes into view of those who arrived at the place of registration and checked out for the purpose of moving abroad. Those who left their Russian registration are not taken into account. And the number of such people is much greater than those who finally decided not to return. Thus, it turns out that according to statistics, several hundred citizens left the Russian Federation for, say, Germany, and several thousand entered.

In general, Eurostat provides the following data on the number of Russian citizens living abroad for the period the end of 2015 - the first half of 2021:

When studying the issue of migration, it is equally important to understand what tendency this process has - to increase or decrease. Emigration from Russia by year is best seen from the table data:

As can be seen from the table, a new wave of emigration began in 2012, for which there are many reasons.

List of new amendments for migrants from 2021

It is worth noting that migration is a serious problem not only in Russia. Today, many European countries are suffering from an influx of migrants. This is due to the turbulent situation in the East, including Syria. People are trying with all their might to leave the areas captured by terrorists.

Due to this, illegal border crossings flourish. Because of this, crime surges begin, including human trafficking and drug importation. Therefore, it is not only Russia that has tightened its legislative framework. Thus, in Ireland, up to 10 years in prison are provided for violating the migration regime. You can be deported to the United States without the right to re-cross the border.

New amendments in 2021 include the following:

• presence of a foreign passport;
• indication of the reason for arrival with the place of future work;
• a certain period for registration;
• obtaining a general patent;
• mandatory exams;
• registration of medical and social insurance;
• simplified submission of documents for students.

Let's consider all these points in more detail. For example, since January 2016, citizens of other countries can no longer use a regular passport in Russia. An exception is now made neither for residents of Tajikistan, nor for Ukraine, nor for any other states. Only a foreign passport is quoted in the Russian Federation for foreign citizens. Such amendments will not affect only immigrants from the Eurasian Union, which includes Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan. What’s noteworthy is that the government clarified that those workers who are already in Russia can apply for such a passport during 2021.

Results of data from foreign migration services

• 7% of citizens of retirement age leave for Israel,
• Germany – 6% of people of retirement age,
• USA – 5.8% of pensioners.
• The largest number of older people come to the Baltic countries - 8.7% of Russian pensioners.
• To France, Belgium, Spain - 1.2% of retirement age.

But how emigration to New Zealand from Belarus happens can be found in this article.

There is a category of wealthy people who have already retired and are leaving the country.

According to surveys by the Levada Center, only about 2.6% of Russian residents (approximately 3 million 740 thousand people) now want to leave the country. Preference is given to foreign countries.