Migrants will return to Russia en masse. This country has only advantages


In Chita, members of a group that organized an illegal migration channel in the Trans-Baikal Territory were convicted. Accomplices helped displaced people undergo mandatory medical procedures and pass exams for financial compensation. However, the court showed humanity towards the defendants. Izvestia looked into how illegal migration works on the eastern outskirts of the country and why violations are often turned a blind eye.

Rubber zone: who makes money from organizing illegal migration

Russians register thousands of foreigners in their apartments

Conditional landing

A court in Chita handed down an unusually lenient sentence to seven members of a group involved in the legalization of migrants in the Trans-Baikal Territory: the defendants were given suspended sentences of one and a half to four years.

“Residents of Transbaikalia Mutavaliev Sh., Khidirov Kh., Makhmayorov N., Razokov G., Gasanov R., Nazarov Kh. and Kolesnikova A., in order to obtain illegal additional income, created an organized criminal group and were engaged in the illegal legalization in Transbaikalia of immigrants from the countries of the Central Asian region . The members of the group created living and working conditions for foreigners who had no reason to legally stay in the region,” zab.ru quotes a report from the regional FSB department. The Central District Court of Chita found all participants guilty of committing crimes under Part 2 of Art. 322.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (“Organization of illegal migration”).

Photo: wikimapia.org

The court found that the organizer of the group was Shodmonkul Mutavaliev - he looked for people who needed to obtain a patent and organized exams. His accomplice Khurshed Khidirov bribed medical workers to make notes on documents without the presence of foreigners. Alexandra Kolesnikova, a specialist at the Center for Testing Foreign Citizens, also entered into a conspiracy with the organizers of migrant trafficking - she assisted in obtaining fake documents for passing an exam in the Russian language, history and the fundamentals of Russian legislation.

In your right: why in Russia they started talking about restricting the entry of migrants

The authorities intend to make it more difficult for migrants to obtain the right to work. Will they be able to do it

Domestic staff in the Russian Federation. Russians have replaced migrants – for how long?

Sputnik, Maria Naumenko

Russian domestic staff recruitment agencies are recording a serious increase in salary expectations among job seekers. The fact is that due to quarantine restrictions, foreign citizens cannot enter the Russian Federation. They are being replaced by Russians who demand higher wages. How much does a servant earn now? Will this trend continue? Read the Sputnik review.

Police are checking immigration laws

© photo: Sputnik / Andrey Stenin

For foreigners in Russia they will create an analogue of “State Services”

March 30, 2021 Russia temporarily closed the state border. These forced quarantine measures have affected various sectors of the economy that depend on foreign labor. The domestic staff sector also found itself without a significant number of employees. Russians began to fill vacant positions, which became a factor in increasing salaries in this area.

Thus, the average expected salary in the field of domestic staff over the year increased from 55,440 to 56,385 rubles per month. This data is provided by the online job search service HeadHunter.

However, specialized recruitment agencies record higher salary growth in a number of specialties. According to director Ekaterina Averina, if previously 40% of one hundred candidates were foreigners, now their number has decreased to 10%. The shortage of specialists has provoked an increase in salary expectations.

“Before the pandemic, a nanny’s salary for a five-day working week with an 8-hour working day was 60-65 thousand rubles. Now it’s about 80 thousand rubles,” explains Sputnik’s interlocutor.

The Good Angel agency faced a similar situation. According to the director of the organization, Lyubov Novikova, since the beginning of the pandemic, the number of foreign applicants has decreased by 50%.

© Sputnik

Domestic staff in the Russian Federation from neighboring countries in March 2021

“Previously, you could find a housekeeper for 45-50 thousand rubles, even for 40, now applicants are considering vacancies starting from 60 thousand,” says Novikova.

Labor migrants. Boarding a train from Rostov-on-Don to Uzbekistan

© photo: Sputnik / Sergey Pivovarov

Putin instructed to consider the issue of attracting migrant workers to construction sites

“If before the introduction of quarantine, married couples - domestic helpers who worked and lived in country houses, perceived 100 thousand rubles a month as a good salary, but now 130-150 is the minimum,” adds the creator of the recruitment agency for the selection of domestic staff Helper Agent Alena Sudienkova.

She notes that foreigners with whom they constantly worked previously are “stuck” in different countries.

The agency “Second Mother” Sputnik reported that before the pandemic they often found employees from Belarus, but now due to the coronavirus they do not have such employees at all.

What professions are foreigners in demand for?

“We have a regular client with whom we have been cooperating for several years. The housewife was looking for a housewife among citizens of Tajikistan. In her opinion, Tajik people are easy to learn, flexible in character, and do not take any comments with hostility,” Sudienkova gives an example.

Residents of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova (including from Transnistria) are most often considered as nannies and housekeepers, says Averina, head of the Prestige agency. According to her, men from among the citizens of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are often hired as au pairs at their dachas. They do lawn mowing, grounds cleaning and minor repairs.

Housekeepers and nannies from the Baltics were also valued, Helper Agent claims.

Teachers, governesses, nannies from neighboring countries

© Sputnik

Teachers, governesses, nannies from neighboring countries

“Some Russian families lived in two countries: in some European country and in the Russian Federation. And often they need people with EU citizenship so that there are no problems with obtaining work visas and other documents. Accordingly, nannies from the Baltics are best suited for this,” explains Sudienkova.

Market prospects

The complete opening of borders will lead to a decrease in the level of wages for domestic staff in the Russian Federation, says Alena Sudienkova, head of Helper Agent. As an example, she cites the situation in 2014, when Ukrainians began having difficulties entering Russia*.

Labor migrants in Russia

© photo: Sputnik / Marina Makovetskaya

The number of migrants in Russia has almost halved

“At a certain point, salaries jumped. But then many applicants from Donetsk and Lugansk appeared, their salary expectations turned out to be much lower than those of the Russians. Accordingly, there are more applicants on the market, and salaries have become lower,” explains Sudienkova.

But for now, the upward trend in salaries for domestic staff will continue, the head of the Prestige agency, Averina, is sure. The borders are not opening, but Russians have begun to go from remote work to their offices. A new stage of increasing demand for housekeepers is felt.

*In 2014, passenger air traffic between Russia and Ukraine was interrupted. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities recommended their citizens not to visit the Russian Federation. Organized groups of migrant workers faced pressure and lengthy checks at the border from the Ukrainian side.

Adaptation mess

The prosecutor’s office drew attention to the problem with the lack of transparency of the flow of migrants in the Trans-Baikal Territory at the end of 2021. According to the department, every third migrant checked by the police in the region at that time committed one or another offense, about 200 migrants annually are subject to expulsion, deportation or readmission, according to the website of the supervisory agency. In particular, the prosecutor's office reported cases of suppression of the labor activities of foreigners who entered the country under the guise of tourists. Even then, the supervisory authorities had questions “about the quality of the exams being conducted and the validity of assigning positive grades to foreigners for their knowledge of the Russian language and other subjects.”

At the end of last year, the prosecutor's office issued nine proposals to eliminate violations to the authorized state control bodies in the field of migration. The supervisory authority also had questions about the qualifications of examiners at the local testing center for foreigners - it turned out that a number of teacher-testers did not have documents confirming the completion of advanced training courses in their areas of activity.

You weren’t here: migration registration in Russia has become more accessible

Foreigners have the right to register whoever they want in their living space

How to do it right

Every foreigner who enters Russia must register with the migration service (GUVM MIA) in order to legally stay on the territory of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Uvarov, a member of the Russian Lawyers Association, explained to Izvestia. Registration is a procedure for notifying the police service of the arrival of a foreigner in Russia. The receiving party may be: citizens of the Russian Federation who have registration at their place of residence or property in Russia; foreigners with a residence permit; foreigners with the status of a highly qualified specialist if they have living quarters - they can register their relatives.

They take a detour

migrants
Photo: IZVESTIA/Zurab Javakhadze

Feedback: why Russia lacks labor migrants

Despite the shortage of workers, foreigners are expelled even for minor violations

“The receiving party can be a Russian company or its branch or representative office if the foreign citizen actually lives at the address of the legal entity or in premises rented by the legal entity,” the lawyer explained. — As well as an international organization, its representative office or a representative office of another country, if they provide residential or other premises for actual residence to a foreigner. The law also allows state authorities of the Russian Federation or local government to accept migrants.

Foreigners who have housing in Russia and highly qualified specialists can register on their own.

After entering Russia, filling out a migration card and proper notification by the receiving party of the Main Directorate for Migration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs about the arrival of a foreigner, the migrant has the right to stay in the country for 90 days from the moment of crossing the border.

Alone in the field: Russian farmers never received migrants

Due to labor shortages, some farms may reduce acreage

“After 90 days, a foreign citizen must either renew registration for existing reasons, or leave the Russian Federation for three months,” the lawyer explained.

To obtain a temporary stay permit or residence permit, foreigners will have to pass exams, provide medical and other documents specified in the law “On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation” and the relevant administrative regulations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Will a new wave of Covid in Russia be provoked by migrants?

On April 1, Russia resumed flights with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and labor migrants, without whom the Russian economy was sewn up, again came to us. As Yulia Florinskaya, a leading researcher at the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, told Rosbalt, until now migrants from these countries came to Russia as part of organizational recruitment, that is, at the request of a specific employer. In this case, it was employers who were responsible for ensuring that their foreign workers were tested for coronavirus infection. Now that the Russian authorities have opened air traffic, this is the responsibility of the migrants themselves. They, as well as Russians returning from abroad, must take a test after arriving in Russia. And, judging by the queues that appeared in private laboratories, some of the visitors do not neglect these rules.

The situation with labor migrants from the EAEU countries is slightly different. From Kyrgyzstan, for example, planes began flying to Russia even before April 1, and the number of migrants from this country during the pandemic did not fall as much as the number of migrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Unlike Tajik and Uzbek migrants, citizens of Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Belarus and Kazakhstan within the EAEU have more rights: they do not have to obtain patents for work, and can also apply for a compulsory medical insurance policy in Russia, which gives them the right to medical care in the Russian Federation. As human rights activist, chairman of the “Civic Assistance” committee (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation) Svetlana Gannushkina said, migrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan can only rely on voluntary health insurance (VHI), which they, as a rule, do not have. In this case, if they get sick with coronavirus, they can only count on “ambulance” - in emergency cases. “By law, emergency assistance is provided without a compulsory medical insurance policy. If the ambulance doctor considers that the migrant needs emergency care and hospitalization, he will be taken to the hospital and treated. That is, migrants with Covid are actually hospitalized and treated. I know such cases. But I also know others when they say: nothing, rest at home. But that’s what they tell Russians,” Gannushkina noted. Another question is whether people who came to our country to work will be able to rest at home and isolate themselves, given the overcrowded living environment typical of many migrant workers. Could their arrival provoke a new wave of the epidemic, Vasily Vlasov .

— How will the return of migrants to Russia affect the epidemiological situation?

“I don’t think it will have any effect.” The fact is that we don’t know very well what the incidence rate is in Russia, and we don’t know at all what the incidence rate is in Uzbekistan. Worse, perhaps, we only know what is happening in China. Therefore, there is no obvious danger in the return of migrants. We could talk about danger if we had a “clean” country like New Zealand or Israel. Now, given our morbidity rate, trips of Russians themselves abroad are more likely to pose a danger. The main problem is not even that people go on vacation to an infected country, but that they lead a different way of life there. Such as, for example, in Turkish hotels, where vacationers communicate quite closely. Therefore, I think the resumption of air traffic with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan poses no threat to us.

— You said: we don’t know very well what is happening with the epidemic in Russia, and even more so somewhere in Uzbekistan. What did you mean?

— I talked about problems with statistics. We only found out how bad it was in 2021 when we saw the excess mortality at the end of the year.

11311 Migrants are being prepared for “serfdom”

When it comes to statistics, we need to be critical, but admit that we ourselves are wrong. For example, last summer the situation seemed suspicious when the same morbidity rates for Moscow were reported over a period of time. And in January, our morbidity and mortality rates in national statistics began to decrease simultaneously. This also seemed strange, because usually the incidence decreases first, and the mortality rate begins to fall later.

Now in Russia, according to official data, twice as many people die every day than at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic - in May-June. Of course, compared to December 2021, when the country experienced another peak in incidence, mortality is decreasing, but this decrease is happening very slowly. If the incidence rate had really declined in January, the mortality rate compared to December should have decreased significantly more—by three to four times. And it decreased by less than half. Apparently, people who got sick in March are now dying, not in December. And this may indirectly support the view that perhaps the incidence that we see in national reports may be underestimated.

But, I emphasize, we cannot have any certainty here, only suspicions. This is a process in which we can sometimes mistake natural fluctuations for manipulation, and sometimes we cannot see the manipulations (because if they exist, they are done by intelligent people). All we can hope for is that the death statistics, the absolute number of people dying, do not deceive us.

— Could the increase in incidence be connected precisely with the fact that migrants from previously closed countries began to return to Russia?

— Theoretically, this is possible. But in practice, at least on paper, we have introduced a control regime for people entering. Everyone who arrives by air must present test results confirming the absence of coronavirus when boarding the plane, and be tested again in Russia. If you follow all these rules, the process is quite safe. I’m only afraid that in Russia there may be problems with the implementation of this good rule.

— But in general, is a PCR test upon arrival an effective measure that guarantees that migrants will not bring the virus with any new strains to us?

— There are no absolutely effective measures. You probably remember that about four months ago we had a large group flying from Russia to China - a whole plane. And the Chinese discovered that this entire group had falsified coronavirus test results. The flight was cancelled. By and large, people who faked test results committed a serious crime against public health. A criminal case should have been opened against them. But have you heard anything about this?

In this sense, the entry control procedure is very vulnerable. It is no coincidence that Israel allows people into the country only with their own tests and trusts only their own vaccination certificates, but does not trust foreign ones. “Green passports” are easy to advertise, but then try to make sure they are all real. Therefore, I emphasize that the procedure itself, if carried out, completely ensures a fairly low level of danger from those entering. But it depends on how it will be carried out.

“It turns out that last May, when there were strict restrictions in the country, and you could only leave the house with a pass, the mortality rate was half as much as it is now. At the same time, people now calmly want to go to cafes, walk in crowds in parks, and officials are resuming air traffic with other countries. How does this behavior correspond to the epidemiological situation?

“This is the first time in our memory that such a pandemic has happened. It was a virus completely unfamiliar to us, and humanity was absolutely not prepared for such events. At some point, it seemed that the coronavirus pandemic was terribly deadly, and all possible measures should be taken to minimize the risks. Then they realized that she was not so murderous after all, and they began to develop a certain “correct way of behavior.” This method appears to involve returning to an active life, but with significant restrictions. For example, short-term isolation after a flight from Uzbekistan to Moscow, testing for the presence of coronavirus upon entering the country.

I think that today there are no more people left who would stand for a total ban until the pandemic is over. It is clear that with total bans we are only destroying public life, making the situation of poor people who do not have money and who cannot earn money while sitting at home in isolation especially intolerable. Therefore, it is necessary to develop some reasonable rules.

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“You get used to war, not like Covid”

— You touched on the topic of poverty and the fact that not everyone can earn money while sitting in complete isolation. Migrant workers have even fewer such opportunities. Coming here to earn money, many of them cannot afford to sit at home if they feel unwell. At the same time, they work not only at construction sites, but also in public catering. Could this be an additional source of spread of coronavirus?

— All people have unique circumstances. Remember how in the spring, political scientist Sergei Markov, having fallen ill with Covid in Yalta, did not refuse to fly to Moscow on a plane, even at the risk of infecting other passengers, and he himself later talked about it. Markov’s fear of being left with Covid in Yalta may not be comparable to the Uzbek’s fear of leaving his family hungry if he refuses to fly to Russia to earn money. These people are not necessarily scoundrels. They may be forced to go to extremes due to some of their circumstances. Therefore, the entry control system must be as reliable as possible. Then everything will be more or less successful in this direction.

— What will happen when land connections with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are opened?

“I think that trains should be dealt with on the same principle as air travel: a certificate confirming the absence of coronavirus when boarding the train and a control test upon arrival, possibly with temporary isolation. I must say that trains, for example, from Tashkent, take quite a long time. Therefore, the control system should work even better with them, since the disease will have time to manifest itself in people who board the train. If this happens, it will be possible to send whole trainloads of people into isolation to prevent the spread of Covid. That is, people should be able to move, but with appropriate restrictions.

“If you go out into the city center on a weekend, you get the impression that the pandemic is over, although the death rates say otherwise. Do you think this behavior of people is not premature?

“It’s clear that with the arrival of spring, people want to live and love. But the return to the joys of summer is accompanied by an increase in the level of danger from the point of view of the epidemic. I have the impression that we have experienced a new rise in the incidence rate, and I have no confidence that efforts will not be made to ignore it in order to celebrate Victory Day. And, I’m afraid that in this case, Victory Day will smell not of gunpowder, but of blood. In terms of scale, the victims may not be very many, but these are the victims that can be avoided with the reasonable implementation of public policy.

It is understandable that people have ceased to be afraid of infection over time. According to statistics, if I remember correctly, every second Russian today does not consider coronavirus dangerous. There would be nothing wrong with this, if not for one problem: those who do not believe in the danger of coronavirus do not want to get vaccinated. But even young people, albeit not very often, also get seriously ill and end up in the next world. Moreover, since the incidence of the disease is widespread, the number of young people aged 20-40 who go to the churchyard is generally quite large. At the same time, if we turn to information about Russian vaccines, at least one of them looks quite effective and safe.

—Are you talking about Sputnik?

- Yes, about him. In my opinion, healthy schoolchildren need not be vaccinated, but as for older people burdened with chronic diseases, I think it is better for them to be vaccinated.

There is not a single vaccine that would guarantee that a person will not get sick. Just as there is no way to protect yourself from being run over at a pedestrian crossing or from having a brick fall on your head when walking along the sidewalk past a house. There are always risks in our lives. There are also risks from the vaccine itself. There is a possibility that the vaccine will not work. But the vaccine is quite effective, as it seems to us now, judging by what we know about it. She protects people quite well. Most people who are vaccinated will not get sick. In addition, vaccination can reduce the risk of death. This is why a reasonable person, in my opinion, especially a person over 60 years of age, should be vaccinated.

Anna Semenets

View from the outside

UN experts associate Russia's attractiveness for Asians with a stable economic situation, relatively high wages and a large number of jobs.

Author of the quote

The International Organization for Migration ranks Russia fourth in the world in terms of incoming migrant flows. Only the USA, Germany and Saudi Arabia are ahead. For comparison, much fewer migrants enter the UK and France - these are Russia's closest “persecutors” in the ranking. Over the past 10 years, the Russian Federation has been included in the list of six countries leading in the number of remittances sent: in 2021, the total amount of funds sent by foreigners from Russia to their homeland amounted to $20.6 billion. The World Bank has calculated that the main recipient countries of such remittances are also unchanged over the past 10–15 years: these are China, India, Mexico and the Philippines. According to UN data for 2021, of all international migrants in the world, over 40% (112 million people) were born in Asia.

We are talking about the countries of the former USSR in Central Asia and even China. Experts note that Siberia is becoming more and more attractive for foreigners, especially for residents of rural areas of Kyrgyzstan.

“In Kyrgyzstan, remittances contributed to reducing poverty in the country by 6–7%,” notes the UN Development Program. Experts state that it is difficult to calculate the volume of illegal migration from Central Asia.

They take a detour

construction
Photo: IZVESTIA/Konstantin Kokoshkin

“For most migrants, the first points of entry are Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and then they are smuggled through Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation into Western Europe. Illegal migration within the subregion is facilitated by factors such as poor border management, which are also in difficult to access areas,” says the 2020 World Migration Report 2020.

Dense place: can Moscow replace migrants with regional residents

The capital's mayor's office hopes to attract them to work in the housing and communal services sector, but it is not a fact that such an offer will be in demand, experts say

An additional factor contributing to the increase in illegal migration is the pandemic. Lacking a legal opportunity to work in Russia, migrants are often involved in illegal labor trafficking.

Migrants are being prepared for “serfdom”

When the coronavirus pandemic came to Russia last spring, most of the seasonal migrants did not come to us, and those who were in the country partially returned to their homeland to wait out unclear times there. As a result, we were missing a quarter of foreign workers. During this time, many small and medium-sized enterprises that employed migrant workers closed. Others recruited Russians to replace them. Now in Russia there is talk of gradually lifting restrictions on the entry of foreign workers. In particular, Vladimir Efimov, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Economic Policy and Property and Land Relations, expressed this need. When this happens, more than a million migrant workers could return to Russia, said Vadim Kozhenov, president of the Federation of Migrants. Valentina Chupik , director of migration programs for the international non-profit organization Tong Jahoni, told Rosbalt .

— When labor migrants start returning to Russia, will there be jobs for them, or will we face fierce competition between foreign workers and Russians?

— Russians cannot replace migrants in any industry. It’s easier now, but back in February and March I had a huge number of requests from employers from different industries who said: “Give us back the Uzbeks and Tajiks. We brought Russians from the regions, and now we don’t know what to do with them. They do not work. Their qualifications are below par. They don’t want to study anything, they don’t want to improve their skills. We will send them back. Please give us migrants who can work.” Our entire group was inundated with advertisements for vacancies for migrants, despite the fact that we are engaged in legal support, not recruitment.

2806 Children of migrants: quotas or adaptation

— What industries did you receive applications from?

“We received applications from construction for hundreds, sometimes thousands of people at once. Small requests came and continue to come from catering, cleaning and hotel management. Migrants are needed for small-scale production - sewing, repairs, workshops. Farmers came to me and begged me to recruit people for their poultry farms. Migrants are vital to Russia, applications come from everywhere.

— The Federation of Migrants said: when the borders are opened, a million migrants will pour in, who have been waiting all this time in their homeland for the restrictions to be lifted. Are we really expecting such a massive flow of foreign labor?

— Regular flights have opened, thousands of migrants are already coming to Russia. Of course, if restrictions on ground transport are lifted and there are more flights, the missing 1-1.5 million migrants will return to us. And this will be good, because the economy will collapse without them.

Yes, labor prices will fall. During the pandemic, when there was a shortage of migrants, prices for their labor increased sharply: in construction - three times, in cleaning - one and a half times, in catering - two times. When migrants return, wages will fall, that's true. But it won't last long. Prices will then return to market levels.

— Do employers wait for migrants because their labor costs less?

- Not in this case. Migrants are much more qualified than Russians. An auxiliary worker also requires qualifications. And even more so for a mason, concrete worker, monolayer, plasterboarder. It is mainly Russians who are hired for single specialties, such as machine crane operator. In this regard, Russia has qualified specialists, and when employers choose between a qualified Russian and a qualified foreigner, they usually prefer a Russian. But in Russia there are not as many qualified concrete workers as employers need. Therefore, there is simply no competition between these groups of workers. These are groups that do not compete with each other. During the pandemic, employers tried to recruit people from the regions. But the qualifications and work habits of Russians do not correspond to the work regime in Russia. Migrants work harder, better, and they don’t have to do anything over.

— Where then comes all the talk about low-skilled foreigners coming to us who don’t know how to do anything?

“It’s just racism, nothing more.” Having worked in Russia for many years, migrants have already gained extensive experience and skills that allow them to be considered qualified.

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In Russia they started talking about registration reform

— Recently, the Ministry of Labor introduced a new procedure for working with migrant workers, according to which they will now be recruited at the request of employers. How will it work?

“This procedure was developed for an era when borders were closed. It was assumed that the employer must have a turnover of over 2 billion rubles, obtain approval from four ministries, so that, at his request, they can hire workers in their homeland. It was in effect for a little over a month - from February 5 to April 1, it seems. On April 1, migrants began returning to Russia. Now, if there are willing employers, they can recruit personnel upon request, but this is not necessary. You can hire those who entered Russia on their own.

— What difficulties might migrants returning to Russia encounter?

“Currently, catastrophic changes to legislation are being prepared that will completely de-legalize migration and virtually introduce a visa-free regime. The plan is this: first, the employer must obtain the approval of the regional governor to recruit foreigners for specific specialties. Then foreigners must register in the register of workers as specialists. Then, in the specialty for which they registered, they must obtain a patent, and once they get a job, they will not be able to leave the employer who hired them. That is, now in Russia they are trying to introduce de facto serfdom. Naturally, this mechanism will not work. Enterprises need people here and now, and no one will register on this register and wait. As a result, all this will lead to the fact that people will enter Russia in a non-working mode, temporarily, after which they will stay here and start working, but in the shadows. In this case, the Russian budget will lose completely all the taxes that migrants currently pay on patents. These are colossal amounts (according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in 2021 the federal budget received 57 billion rubles from foreigners working on patents, in 11 months of 2021 - 43.5 billion rubles - Rosbalt), not counting the fact that migrants are also investing in the economy due to consumption. They support apartment landlords, food and industrial product manufacturers.

I believe that this is a deliberately unworkable law. Nothing but collapse awaits the Russian economy in this story. If adopted, this law will delegalize migration in the same way as it was before 2006. It will all end exactly the same: mass migration amnesty and reforms. I don't know why the Russian government is made up of people who don't learn from their mistakes.

— Do you have an understanding of why Russia decided to introduce such regulation of migration?

— It seems to me that this is happening because Russian officials do not think in terms of the state, but in terms of their own pockets. They probably believe that with the introduction of the law they will be able to take bribes from employers and will organize a huge business on allowing or not allowing migrants to work. They will be able to collect huge bribes from the migrants themselves who are in the country illegally. I think that's how they imagine it. But they do not think that in this case the economy will simply collapse, because a colossal amount of taxes and labor will be missing. In this case, there will be nothing to support the officials themselves, and they will cease to be those officials who can check, permit or prohibit something, and will not receive these same bribes.

Anna Semenets

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