What it is

A country's migration policy represents several factors that management relies on when creating regulatory legislation. In Russia, the focus on labor that comes from abroad is quite high.

In this regard, a positive balance of migrants appears on the territory of the Russian Federation. This phenomenon cannot remain unnoticed, since it leads to irreversible consequences.

Such as:

• reduction in wages;
• an increase in demand for vacancies, and, accordingly, unemployment;
• withdrawal of currency from the country.

These processes must be subject to strict control. Plus, with the presence of illegal migrants, the shadow economy sector increases, since they are not registered at work.

Important Concepts

Understanding this process in the Russian Federation requires processing a number of concepts that will need to be worked with:

What types is it divided into (positive, negative, zero)

This type of indicator is also called mechanical for population growth, since everyone taken into account in the calculations is not a citizen of the country.

In order to understand how the balance indicator is obtained and what it means, it is necessary to study the types of this figure that are used in Russia:

Legal basis

The legislation regulates the situation of migrants through several laws. Thus, Federal Law No. 115-FZ “On the legal status of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation” should be taken into account. For example, Chapter 5 contains provisions regarding the registration of foreigners.

Article 29.1. accounting rules are stipulated. There is also a separate migration program in the country. It operates on the basis of Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 1668 “On the Federal Migration Program”.

It talks about the possibilities of attracting foreign citizens to work in the country, that is, maintaining a foreign labor policy. But at the same time, provisions are established regarding control in this area.

Order of the Ministry of Labor of Russia No. 718n “On the distribution among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation of quotas approved by the Government of the Russian Federation for 2021 for the issuance of foreign citizens arriving in the Russian Federation on the basis of a visa, work permits and invitations to enter the Russian Federation for the purpose of carrying out work activities” provides migrants with the opportunity obtaining a job under special quotas.

The International Convention for the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families is also in force in Russia. In accordance with it, such people should receive full rights to work, treatment and comfortable living conditions and movement around the country.

Where do people go?

Migration flows of the Central Federal District The Analytical Center of the Institute of Digital Transformations and Economic Trends Research conducted an assessment and made a forecast for changes in the population in the Central Federal District of Russia.

The NUMBER of the population of Russia in the future until 2024 will decrease annually . This conclusion was reached by experts from the Analytical Center of the Institute of Digital Transformations and Economic Trends Research. In the most pessimistic outcome, the country's population will decrease from 146 to 139 million people . In 2021, the natural population decline in Russia, that is, the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, amounted to almost 260 thousand people. The reduction was the highest in 11 years. This figure was higher only in 2008 – 362 thousand. Experts believe that this trend is likely to be stable and long-term. Natural gains are likely to persist only in the North Caucasus Federal District . In other districts, including the Central Federal District , a population decline will be recorded, which will increase annually from 0.1% in 2021 to 0.3% in 2024.

Internal migration in Russia has a great influence on the population of the Central Federal District . Over 10 years, its pace has doubled: if in 2008 more than two million Russians changed their place of residence, then in 2019 – almost five million. According to statistics, more than half of the migrants move within their region, but the rest change their lives radically, moving to other regions, most often to the Central Federal District. Experts identify three reasons for migration: economic, political and religious-cultural.

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In our country, the reason for moving in the vast majority of cases is economic difficulties. According to statistics, Russians leave to work in other regions not because they are paid little, but because they do not pay at all and it is difficult to find work in the region. It is not surprising that by 2024 the minimum unemployment rate is predicted in the Central Federal District - the most attractive district for labor migration .

Experts predict that migration growth in the Central Federal District will increase from 128 thousand people in 2021 to 134 thousand in 2024, which is associated with a labor shortage in most growing sectors of the economy, such as the service sector, industrial production, construction, transport. In the future, until 2024, Moscow and the Moscow region, Belgorod, Tula and Yaroslavl regions . The lowest unemployment rate in the Central Federal District in 2024 is predicted in the Moscow and Kaluga regions.

When assessing the level of migration, it is worth taking into account the scale of temporary migration in the Central Federal District, which in some regions exceeds migration for permanent residence by an order of magnitude. For example, the reverse migration flow from Moscow and the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod and Ivanovo regions is high. Both young people who have received higher education and middle-aged people who left to work in these regions are returning to their hometowns.

Russian Federation. Interregional migration (growth): fact. 2016–2019, forecast 2020–2024 (thousand people)

It is curious that from most regions of the Central Federal District, according to experts, more residents will leave than arrive . But there are also exception regions that are the most attractive for living. In them, the increase in residents will prevail over the departure.

For example, the Voronezh region is interesting both for citizens of the former Soviet republics and for Russian residents of neighboring regions. It is predicted that arrivals to the region will increase annually, and positive growth will increase from 700 people in 2021 to 900 in 2024. The main reason for moving is high income. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the region is projected to have the highest growth rates of gross regional product (GRP) among all regions of the Central Federal District.

The Ryazan region is also one of the regions where the population will continue to grow. The region is attractive not only for citizens of the former Soviet republics, but also for Russian residents of a number of neighboring regions of the Central Federal District. This is due to the high level of income in the region. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, higher growth in investment in fixed assets is expected in the Ryazan region compared to other regions of the Central Federal District.

leave the Yaroslavl region than arrive. However, this area is more attractive to residents of the former Soviet republics than to residents of Russian regions due to its relatively low income level. It is expected that in the future the development of the region's economy will reduce the outflow of population.

The Tula region also belongs to the promising regions . The main reason for arriving in the region is the higher level of income of the population compared to other regions of the Central Federal District. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, high growth in investment in fixed assets is expected in the Tula region, which will lead to rapid growth in the region's GRP.

Moscow and the Moscow region are leaders in the ranking of attractiveness for living. Despite the fact that in Moscow, positive migration growth is expected to decrease from 85 thousand people in 2021 to 82 thousand people in 2024, it will continue to remain high. The region is projected to experience high growth in fixed capital investment and will become a leader in industrial production in the near future. The frequent movement of Muscovites to the Moscow region is largely due to the availability of cheap housing there. At the same time, in the Moscow region, positive migration growth will also decrease from 70 thousand people in 2021 to 67.5 thousand people in 2024.

The problem of international migration also remains relevant . This is primarily due to the labor shortage and the process of depopulation in the country. Over the past year, the number of migrants arriving from near and far abroad countries in the Central Federal District has decreased, while the number of Russians leaving it, on the contrary, has increased. In the future, the main influx of migrants into the district is predicted from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan , as well as Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan .

Anastasia NECHEPURNOVA

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Basic moments

The migration balance is used in large quantities for statistics. This indicator may reflect the actual state of the country's population at a certain moment.

This calculation makes it possible to obtain a synthesized indicator, on the basis of which the following is carried out:

• economic reforms;
• legislative regulation - visa for residence;
• migration issues;
• improving the social condition in society.

The balance indicator in this area cannot always help the government. But in most cases, it allows us to determine the direction of legislative activity to improve various areas of life, primarily for the citizens of the country.

Classification of indicators

The migration balance allows you to obtain the amount of mechanical increase in the country's population. But there are several peculiarities when making calculations. First of all, this is a classification according to indicators that will participate in the calculation process.

Since they rely only on official data, the resulting figure must be reliable. But there may be errors here too. In this regard, it was decided to divide all numbers in the formula into absolute and relative.

This will allow us to obtain more accurate data, but they should also be treated with skepticism and with a slight addition or subtraction of a certain proportion of the population.

Absolute

This category of indicators includes:

Also used here is a division by type of process: