The policy of replacing and squeezing out Russians in Kazakhstan
The Kazakh government has announced plans to resettle 10,000 people in the North Kazakhstan region by 2026, Vice Minister of Labor and Social Protection Serik Shapkenov said this month.
This area is mainly populated by Russian-speaking Kazakhstanis. According to the 2009 census, there were 300 thousand Ukrainians in Kazakhstan, and 3.8 million Russians.
According to Nur-Sultan’s plans, the announced program will supposedly “improve the demographic situation of the region.” To implement the plan, 1.8 trillion tenge will be needed, including 517.9 billion tenge from the republican budget, 43.9 billion tenge from the local budget, and 1.3 trillion tenge from private investment.
In the “Point of View” program, Kazakh economist and political scientist Pyotr Svoik will tell you whether this is a lot of money, what caused these plans, whether they are connected with the tactics of gradually squeezing out the Russian-speaking population and replacing them with Kazakhs.
According to statistics for 2021, over 45 thousand people left Kazakhstan, most of them the Russian population. The reasons are the inability to obtain higher education in Russian, the feeling of being “second-class” citizens. At the same time, in neighboring Kyrgyzstan it was decided that Russian schools would be created in all regions, and Uzbekistan began to return the Russian language to schools.
The Kazakh government decided to begin in 1923 the translation of all schools exclusively into the Kazakh language, and Russian into the Latin alphabet.
Russians are fleeing Kazakhstan. They are left with no choice
Migration statistics show that over the nine months of 2021, 25 thousand Russians left Kazakhstan. Why did our compatriots begin to leave this country en masse?
Tsargrad has already written about the boom in renaming settlements, streets and squares in Kazakhstan, where regional authorities are trying to get rid of Russian and Soviet heritage.
At the head of this process are Kazakh NGOs, local akimats and social activists who do not even hide their Western orientation. However, the idea is beginning to be supported in the higher echelons of the republican government.
Since the beginning of 2021, specialists have been presented with as many as eight variants of the new Kazakh alphabet in the Latin alphabet for study; moreover, there are proposals to translate the Russian language in the republic into Latin transcription.
Meanwhile, the ranking agency Ranking.kz published a fresh review on migration in Kazakhstan. From this document it follows that in 2019, 34.2 thousand people left the republic with an influx of population of only 8 thousand people. Most of those who left—25 thousand people—are Russians. What makes our compatriots flee Kazakhstan?
Departure boom
As Ranking.kz notes, Kazakhstan in 2021 again faced a negative balance of external migration. The balance is calculated as the difference between those who arrived and those who left, and at the end of three quarters of 2019 it amounted to minus 26.2 thousand people (a year earlier - minus 22.2 thousand people). At the same time, it follows from the review that in general the population of Kazakhstan is increasing, but this is due to the birth rate. In 2021, the population of the republic was 18.2 million people, but has now reached 18.4 million.
“On a national level, the largest number of arrivals are Kazakhs: 4.5 thousand people. Another 1.7 thousand arrivals are Russians, and 217 people are Karakalpaks. Most of the people who left were Russians (25 thousand people), as well as Germans (2.4 thousand) and Ukrainians (2.3 thousand),” the agency’s review says.
In addition, it follows from the statistics that Kazakhstan has lost mainly its most able-bodied population: 23.6 thousand of the total number of those who left are people from 16 years of age to retirement age. For example, 1.5 thousand pensioners left the republic. In return, only 6.2 thousand people of working age entered Kazakhstan.
How do they feel about this in Kazakhstan?
Indeed, if Russians are leaving the republic en masse, does that mean something? According to some Kazakhs, this suggests that they are simply unworthy of the friendship of the Kazakh people. There are opinions that Russians are divided into two categories - “good” and “bad”. The “bad” Russians leave, but the “good” Russians remain and support the renaming of Russian cities and streets. This is the paradox in Kazakh.
In 2021, 25 thousand Russians left Kazakhstan. Photo: Lucky Photographer / Shutterstock.com
“There have always been Russians in our country who shared the pain and suffering of the Kazakhs, as well as their joys. As were those who guarded them from watchtowers. But there were always more of the first,” Serik Maleev, editor-in-chief of the Altynord website, wrote in the “Kazakhstan News” community on Facebook, claiming that “the Russians of Kazakhstan support the renaming of Pavlodar.”
He also does not hesitate to call Russians “vatniks,” and the use of this definition clearly captures this ideology in a Russophobic vein that is already clear to us, which is known thanks to the Ukrainian authorities.
The fact that there is a split in the Russian community of Kazakhstan, and it is divided into so-called chauvinists-vatniks who oppose the independence of Kazakhstan, and Russians - patriots of their country, is an objective historical process,
- Maleev is sure.
If you read the community more carefully, the Russophobia simply catches your eye. So, for example, in another post Maleev writes that “Russia wanted to absorb Belarus by introducing it into the Russian Federation.” Moscow, he continues, “has hidden its imperial undertaking under the guise of deepening the integration of the two states.”
“But for Belarusians, their own independence turned out to be more valuable than Russian oil. Which led to a sharp cooling in relations between Belarusians and Russians,” gloats a spokesman for public opinion in Kazakhstan.
Of course, one should not generalize and say that all Kazakhs think the same way as Maleev. However, the online newspaper “Altynorda” has its own reader, and having visited the site, it is not difficult to see that the resource is simply saturated with unpleasant, politicized and provocative statements about Russia.
If you believe Maleev and his audience, then the Kazakhs will not be upset at all that the “bad” Russians, who do not agree with the renaming and attack on the Russian language, decided to leave this country.
What is the reason?
However, the real reason is not at all that Russians are allegedly divided into “vatniks” and patriots of Kazakhstan, but in the increasingly obvious oppression of everything Russian. The initiative to rename Pavlodar has caused a wide discussion, and the Kazakh authorities have already joined the issue and support this idea.
The renaming of Pavlodar has caused a wide discussion, and the authorities of Kazakhstan have already joined the issue and support this idea. Photo: kzww / Shutterstock.com
The initiative belongs to the representative of the public organization Jebe Zhumabek Smanov, who put forward it at a meeting with Mazhilis deputy Aizada Kurmanova. It is proposed to rename Pavlodar to Ertis. It is noteworthy that the initiative was suddenly (or not so much) supported by Kurmanova, as well as a large number of local officials, journalists and public figures.
In Pavlodar, by decision of local authorities, 13 streets have already been renamed, including the one that previously bore the name of Mikhail Kutuzov. This process is also underway in the East Kazakhstan region, where renaming affected several hundred streets, villages, and the regional center of Zyryanovsk. It is known that local akim Danial Akhmetov declared war on Russian names there.
At the same time, one cannot help but recall that Pavlodar as a settlement has existed since the 16th century, when it was founded by Russian settlers in the Irtysh region. In 1861, the city was named Pavlodar in honor of the newborn Grand Duke Pavel Alexandrovich. But the Kazakhs prefer to forget about who founded the city and how, and to “comb” the process of renaming streets under “decommunization,” which, in an amicable way, has nothing to do with the Russian Empire. This leads to another conclusion: the initiators of the renaming of Pavlodar, as well as the masses of other settlements, streets and squares, do not care about all this. It is important that there is no Russian.
It is impossible not to say that Kazakhstan today gives the impression of a state that cannot understand itself and its history. Eight variants of the “Latin” Kazakh alphabet at once is a lot. Well, if the transition to the Latin alphabet takes place, then this will mean the need to again teach the population to read, learn the alphabet, and in addition, translate all literature into a new language. But what about schoolchildren who started studying in Cyrillic and will have to finish in Latin?
In addition, the initiative of the former President of the country Nursultan Nazarbayev, put forward by him six years ago, is known. He proposed renaming... no, not the city, but the whole country. Kazakhs should abandon the word “Kazakhstan,” Nazarbayev believed, and in January 2021 he was supported by deputies of the Kazakh Majilis, who continue to discuss this idea.
What about the story?
Finally, one may get the impression that Kazakhstan is now following the path of Ukraine. And it’s not just about de-Russification, but also about trying to come up with your own history. Thus, Doctor of Philosophy and former associate professor of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University B.K. Beisenov stated that Adam was actually a Kazakh.
The Kazakh writer and historian Mukhambetkarim Kozhyrbayuly argued that Ancient Rome was founded by the Kazakhs. Homer, the author of the Iliad and the Odyssey, according to the historian, was an ethnic Kazakh. Ancient Greece was also founded by Kazakh migrants, since the name “Hellas” supposedly comes from the Kazakh “El ata” (Country of the Fathers), and the Hellenes are called so from the Kazakh “el” - “country”.
“The state structure of the Roman Empire was created in accordance with the tribal system of the Kazakh Khaganate. For example, in the Roman Republic, special power was vested in the Senate - the Council of Elders. The Kazakhs have three zhuz, and the Romans also divided the people into three categories: curia, centuriate and tribe,” says Kozhyrbayuly.
There are a lot of similar examples when certain historians and scientists write a new history of their people. However, it is also indisputable that since the beginning of the 19th century, thanks to Russian participation, Kazakh poetry, orchestras of national Kazakh music, and folk dances staged by Russian choreographers appeared.
And the Kazakhs themselves only became a single people at the beginning of the 20th century, whereas before that they had no statehood and were a number of warring nomadic tribes. At the same time, the Russians began to call people living on the territory of modern Kazakhstan Kazakhs, although previously they were called Kyrgyz. The Bolsheviks gave Kazakhstan most of the Russian land in Southwestern Siberia, and the Kazakh SSR was founded in 1936. In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev gave the Kazakhs seven more Russian regions. The same ones from where modern Kazakhs intend to uproot everything Russian.
It is also indisputable that since the beginning of the 19th century, thanks to Russian participation, Kazakh poetry, orchestras of national Kazakh music, and folk dances staged by Russian choreographers appeared. Photo: Vera Larina / Shutterstock.com
To summarize, let’s say: it turns out that the Kazakhs are eradicating not only everything Russian, but also the Russians themselves from this land. It is not surprising that a number of our compatriots do not agree with this and are not ready to put up with people exclaiming that the “vatniks” can go home. This is a process that is unpleasant for both - Russians and Kazakhs. The fraternal people, who have a great common history, who had one large common country in the past, should not divide the Russians and declare war on present history.
Ukrainian scenario - the future of Kazakhstan?
They started talking about a Ukrainian-style Maidan in Kazakhstan after 2014; today the theme of the Holodomor is being promoted - in the context of “the evil Russians killed a million Kazakhs.” Kazakh Russophobia “runs around” with the theme of the threat of “annexation of the northern territories”: “the Russians will come and take everything away,” so it is necessary to torpedo Eurasian integration. It is known that the border agreement between Russia and Kazakhstan was signed.
It is obvious that these trends will become state trends if the current sensible Kazakh leaders are replaced by nationalists “from the plow” or radical Islamists.
In February of this year, Kazakh journalist and member of the Writers' Union Arman Kani proposed depriving Kazakh citizenship and deporting to the Russian Federation officials, private property owners, and entrepreneurs who do not speak the state language. And also, open camps for forced training in the state language, arrest for a certain period of time officials and entrepreneurs who do not speak the Kazakh language, release only those who were able to pass the exam on knowledge of the Kazakh language.
Kazakhstan: a new wave of emigration?
Historically, representatives of over 120 nationalities live in Kazakhstan: Kazakhs, Russians, Ukrainians, Tatars, Germans, Koreans, Chechens... Kazakhstan was not only a place of exile and deportation, but also of all-Union shock construction projects and campaigns. However, due to ongoing emigration, this diversity is gradually disappearing. So, if at the time of gaining independence, Kazakhs made up 50% of the population (and higher) in only 6 regions of Kazakhstan, then at present - in 13. At the same time, there are only two regions left in the republic where Kazakhs are not an ethnic majority - Kostanay and North -Kazakhstan.
Mass emigration from the country began in the 1990s and was then explained mainly by the systemic economic, social and political crisis that gripped all the republics of the former USSR. Later, the flight of the population from the country, having reached a minimum in 2013 - 24.38 thousand people, became less significant. Then the increase in the number of people leaving resumed, and in 2021 the number of emigrants has already reached 37.73 thousand people. This year's rate of attrition is the highest in the last five years. In January-June, according to official statistics, 17.17 thousand people left. Compared to the same period last year, the figure increased by 14%, and by the end of the year it will apparently exceed the previous one.
Kazakhstan leads among the EAEU countries in terms of population outflow. Those leaving emigrate to Russia, Germany, Poland, the USA, Canada, and Israel. Most often people move to the Russian Federation - 15.07 thousand people in January-June of this year, or 87.8% of the total flow of external migrants. Many would prefer Europe, but the chances of finding work in Russia are much greater.
The ethnic composition of citizens leaving the republic corresponds to the geography of migration. The country's migration exchange mainly occurs with the CIS countries: they account for 77.3% of arrivals and 88.8% of departures. The most active people leaving Kazakhstan are Russians, Germans and Ukrainians. Thus, in the first half of this year, the Russian part of emigrants amounted to 12.38 thousand people, or 72.1% of the total outflow. In second place are the Germans - 1.34 thousand people, of which 725 moved to the CIS countries, 615 to other states. Ukrainians took third place in terms of outflow - 1.08 thousand people, or 6.3% of the total flow of migrants. The top ten ethnic groups leaving Kazakhstan included Tatars, Poles, Belarusians, Koreans, Chechens, and Uzbeks.
Ethnic Kazakhs are also leaving the country. Over six months, 735 Kazakhs left the Republic of Kazakhstan, of which 517 moved to the Commonwealth countries, and 218 to other states. More than half of the influx of migrants into Kazakhstan comes from ethnic Kazakhs (oralmans). But if compared with the flow of Kazakhs who arrived in 2011-2012, the rate of immigration of the titular nation has dropped by half.
Over the years of independence, the ethnic composition of the population has changed radically: if in 1989 the indigenous population amounted to 6.53 million people, or 39.7% of the total population of the country, then by the beginning of 2018 the number of Kazakhs reached 12.25 million people, or 67.5 %. The share of the Russian population decreased by almost half - from 37.8% to 19.8%, Germans - from 5.8% to less than 1%, Ukrainians - from 5.4% to 1.5%.
The situation with external migration in Kazakhstan would not cause alarm (its size relative to the total population today is small) if the number of emigrants did not again exceed the number of immigrants. Almost 2.5 times more people left the country last year than arrived. In January-June of this year, 6.37 thousand people arrived in Kazakhstan, which is 26.5% less than in the same period of the previous year. This, of course, indicates that the social well-being of the population is not as excellent as declared by the authorities.
Experts explain the negative balance of population migration by both social and economic reasons and the costs of national policy. Among the first are a lack of jobs, a drop in real incomes, deteriorating medicine and education, a lack of social elevators, growing corruption at the highest level, disappointment in the pension system (the government and the National Bank use the Unified Pension Fund money as a money-box for patching holes in the economy), and creeping devaluation.
Among the political reasons, they note political stagnation that has been going on for many years, imbalances in personnel policy (among officials, civil servants, large businesses, Kazakhs are 95%, among security forces - 99%), fear of the upcoming change of power. Experts also regard everyday nationalism, the reduction of Russian-language schools and the authorities’ decision to transfer the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin as real “push” factors.
The provocations and scandals of national populists, which are not stopped by the authorities, fraught with interethnic conflicts, and can lead the situation into an uncontrollable direction, do not add optimism. These problems are aggravated by the falling level of trust in government. Everything adds up to a lack of faith among part of the country’s population in the future, in the absence of prospects for themselves and their children in the new realities. Many Kazakhstanis live with the concept of delayed choice, wondering where to go when the need arises.
It is clear that those who have the opportunity to settle in new places and choose higher standards of living are leaving the country. Experts note that mainly qualified personnel are leaving Kazakhstan: educated people, technical specialists, creative intelligentsia. And it is imperceptible that the state is actively trying to reverse this trend. Thus, in the first half of this year, 13 thousand people over 15 years old left the country for permanent residence, of which 5.25 thousand, or 40%, have higher education and 4.19 thousand, or 32%, have secondary vocational education . Of these, 17.7% have an economic education, 10.5% have a pedagogical education, and 5.3% have a medical education.
Instead of the specialists who left, Kazakh oralmans (immigrants) from other countries who do not have a high level of education come. In particular, according to the analytical portal Finprom.kz, 15% less qualified personnel arrived in 2021 than in 2015. Moreover, their share of the total number of arrivals was 36%, while in 2015 it was 40.9%.
A distinctive feature of the new wave of emigration from previous ones is its significant youth component. Young people are leaving very actively. According to the Association of Universities of Kazakhstan, in 2021, out of 131 thousand graduates of local schools, about 40 thousand left to enter universities in Russia. They teach better there, and it costs less, plus the opportunity to work in Russia. As a result, these students can be viewed as potential emigrants.
Of course, the Kazakh authorities are concerned about the growing outflow of qualified personnel and youth from the country. On the other hand, according to the Kazakh elite, the predominance of the Slavic population in the regions bordering Russia creates the danger of the “Crimean spring” of 2014, and the authorities are satisfied with a change in the ethnic composition of the population in them.
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To this end, the authorities are encouraging the resettlement of ethnic Kazakhs from the southern regions of the republic to the north. In particular, in February 2016, the government adopted a resolution “On the determination of regions for the resettlement of oralmans and displaced persons,” according to which these include the East Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan regions. Program participants are provided with subsidies for relocation, housing, and utility bills.
At the same time, it is pretended that nothing special is happening. In this regard, the position of the authorities is, in fact, similar to the position of national populists, who declare that “it is a pity to lose experienced personnel, professionals in their field - in this regard, it is, of course, bad. But, on the other hand, this reduces the ideological tension between those who look into Putin’s mouth and those who do not accept him. Let them go and “get up from their knees” together with their own kind.”
Of course, the size of emigration from Kazakhstan cannot yet be compared with the situation in the 1990s, when the number of people numbered hundreds of thousands. However, this does not exclude the possibility of a multiple increase in the emigration flow with the worsening of the internal political, linguistic, and ethnocultural situation unfavorable for the Russian-speaking population of the republic.
Kazakhstan is gradually becoming a mononational state
Kazakhstanis continue to leave the country forever. Many more people leave the country than come to live here. However, the population, although slowly, is growing. This happens due to an increase in the birth rate. Everything is heading towards the fact that Kazakhstan will turn from a multinational country into a mononational one.
Historically, people of many nationalities live in Kazakhstan: Kazakhs, Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, Uighurs, Koreans, Tatars, Chechens, Turks, Uzbeks. However, this diversity is gradually disappearing.
There are several factors turning Kazakhstan into a mononational state.
The first fact is emigration. Many people of different nationalities leave the republic, but a significantly smaller number of people come for permanent residence. Moreover, when immigrating to Kazakhstan, the state provides material support only to oralmans - ethnic Kazakhs who decide to return to their historical homeland. Representatives of other ethnic groups, if they decide to move to Kazakhstan, will not receive any help. This is one of the reasons why not many people want to move to the republic. Other reasons, of course, are much more significant: the uncertainty of the political situation, the raw materials orientation of the economy and, accordingly, the underdevelopment of other industries. And the climate here is by no means mild. In general, Kazakhstan has nothing to attract migrants. And their people are leaving in huge numbers.
According to the Statistics Committee of the Ministry of National Economy, in the first six months of 2021, 17 thousand people left Kazakhstan, of which 15 thousand went to Russia, a thousand went to Germany, 158 people went to the USA. Next come less popular destinations: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Canada, Uzbekistan, Israel, China, Ukraine.
Over the past 10 years, 324 and a half thousand citizens left the country with a population of 18 million people, and 283 thousand arrived in the republic. Thus, the negative balance of migration amounted to about 40 thousand.
The second factor is the rising birth rate. Despite the negative migration balance, the population of Kazakhstan is gradually increasing, the reason is the appearance of a large number of children. Although the republic is significantly inferior to Russia in terms of support for motherhood and childhood (there is no maternity capital, assistance to families with many children is scanty, a woman receives the status of a mother of many children by giving birth to four, not three children), Kazakhstanis are actively giving birth. Four or five children in a family surprises few people here. Perhaps this is due to tradition: Kazakhs value family very much.
Kazakh political scientist Sultanbek Sultangaliev considers the transformation taking place in Kazakh society to be a natural process: “The demographic situation in Kazakhstan does not inspire me with fear at all, because the key factor in this aspect is, in my opinion, the increase in the birth rate of the population, and this indicator in the country has a stable positive trend “, the expert said in an interview with EADaily . — Naturally, we observe the greatest increase in the birth rate, both in quantitative and percentage terms, among the Kazakh population. Taking into account the emigration of people of non-Kazakh nationality from the country in the near future, specifically in five years, the demographic picture in Kazakhstan from a national perspective will be strikingly different from what we observe even now. The change in the demographic situation will significantly affect all aspects of the socio-political and cultural life of Kazakhstani society. These changes should be perceived as an objective process that is characteristic of any developing society.”
But at the same time, many Kazakhstanis express concern that smart, educated people, good technical specialists or creative intelligentsia are leaving the country. Almaty resident Aidar Seidaliev published an emotional post on this topic on his Facebook page. While seeing off his grandson, Seidaliev got into conversation at the airport with young people leaving to study in the USA. The author of the post noted with concern that not all of them were eager to return home after studying. But we are talking about young, educated, talented and ambitious people - those who passed a serious competition to get into this program. Aidar Seydaliev worries that Kazakhstan is losing the best of the best: “The country is made by the elite, including the scientific and creative elite,” he writes. — I personally don’t divide people based on nationality. However, I note that Kazakhs are also leaving today. Previously there were only a few of them, but now this percentage is growing significantly. Among my personal acquaintances are four Kazakh doctors of science who work abroad. Two doctors, professors in St. Petersburg and Germany. And two doctors in Cambridge (the world center of science). We take today's migration too lightly. The bias in the vector of those leaving is towards education, technical and other abilities. They leave not only for developed countries. Today they travel to Russia, China and even Vietnam. All this will determine a decrease in the pace of development of our country, based on the loss of the highly educated part of our labor force. But this is the main driver of economic development today.”
Apparently, the reason for the emigration of the smart and educated is the underdevelopment of Kazakhstani science and, accordingly, the lack of prospects. It is not yet noticeable that the state is trying to somehow reverse this trend.
Kairat Alimbekov , Almaty
“Everything is heading towards the fact that Kazakhstan will turn from a multinational country into a mononational one”
“Kazakhstan leads among the EAEU countries in terms of population outflow” - In the first half of 2021, the migration outflow of the population in Kazakhstan increased 1.7 times and amounted to 10.8 thousand people. LS previously wrote that in the first half of 2021, 17.1 thousand people left Kazakhstan. According to the statistics committee, 6.5 thousand people changed their permanent place of residence, 123 people left under an employment contract, and 21 people left due to study.
Most often people left for Russia (15 thousand people), Germany (1.1 thousand people), the USA (158 people), Belarus (116 people) and Uzbekistan (64 people). And 6.3 thousand people came to the country. At the same time, 3.9 thousand people arrived for permanent residence, 15 people under an employment contract, and 43 people in connection with their studies. Including 2.1 thousand people from Uzbekistan, 1.8 thousand people from Russia, 850 people from China, 277 people from Kyrgyzstan.
"Goodbye, Stan." How many citizens of Central Asian countries emigrated from 1990 to 2021? - The Pew Research Center conducted an analysis of population migration around the world for the period from 1990 to 2021. CA-News has studied this data and provides a summary of the Central Asian countries. Mostly over the years, natives of Central Asia have emigrated to countries such as Russia and Ukraine.
In 1990, 520 thousand people emigrated from Kyrgyzstan, a total of 4.391 million people lived in the country at that time. In 2000, the numbers rose slightly and 570 thousand people out of the country's 4.898 million population left the country. In 2010, the numbers increased significantly and the number of emigrated people was already 730 thousand people out of 5.448 million people living in Kyrgyzstan. By 2017, the number of people leaving continued to increase and the number of emigrants amounted to 760 thousand people. Mostly, natives of Kyrgyzstan emigrated to countries such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Eurasian countries: each acts as best it can 05/14/2021 09:004715
In neighboring Kazakhstan, about 3 million people out of a population of 16.35 million left the country in 1990. In 2000, the number of emigrations amounted to 3.5 million out of 14.88 million people living in the country that year. By 2010, the number of people leaving was 3.81 million out of 16.32 million. In 2021, 4 million people left Kazakhstan. The main countries of emigration in these years were: Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
In Tajikistan, the number of emigrated from the 90s to 2021 remained relatively the same. In 1990, 540 thousand people out of 5.303 million left the country. In 2000, the numbers dropped, 500 thousand people left the country (population 6.216 million). In 2010 and 2021, the figures were the same and 580 thousand people emigrated from the country. As of 2021, Tajikistan has a population of 8,769,221 people. Most people emigrated from Tajikistan to countries such as Russia, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan.
In Uzbekistan in 1990, the number of emigrated from the country was 1.43 million out of 20 million people living in the country at that time. In 2000, 1.6 million left the country (the population was 24 million). In 2010 and 2021, the indicators were relatively the same. 1.99 million people left Uzbekistan. According to the State Statistics Committee, the population of Uzbekistan as of July 1, 2021 is 32,900,100 people. The main countries of emigration in these years were: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
In Turkmenistan, the number of emigrated people in 1990 was 260 thousand out of 3.668 million. In 2000, the numbers dropped to 220 thousand out of 4.501 million population living in the country. In 2010 and 2017, the number of emigrated people was 240 thousand each. Most people emigrated from Turkmenistan to countries such as Uzbekistan, Russia and Kazakhstan.
“Born abroad, living in the EU” - Among foreigners living in the European Union, the majority are Moroccans, natives of Turkey and Russians. Immigrants from Kazakhstan are in 9th place.
It's time for "Dinosaurs" to retire 05/19/2021 09:006585
Aigul IBRAEVA - “Migration as a threat to economic security: why Kazakhstanis leave abroad” - Official statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicate an increasing outflow of the population from Kazakhstan. The figures published by the Statistics Committee of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicate the following: in 2012, the number of those leaving the country exceeded the number of arrivals, and the negative balance of migration has only been increasing since then.
Among the reasons why citizens of Kazakhstan leave the country, according to numerous sociological studies, are the search for work, higher wages, which is also affected by falling income levels, as well as the opportunity to give their children a good education. At the same time, it is clear that those who have the opportunity to settle in a new place, choose a better option for themselves, higher standards of living, are leaving the country, says leading expert of the Institute of Economics and Economics, sociologist Aiman ZHUSUPOVA.
The greatest outflow of population abroad is observed mainly from the eastern and northern regions of Kazakhstan. This poses a threat to the economic potential of the regions of the country that are experiencing the greatest outflow of population, points out Aiman Zhusupova. We are talking primarily about the northern region. In general, population decline is perceived as a threat to national security, including due to the provision of new labor resources to the economy, the expert says.
Population migration in the post-Soviet space occurs mainly in the form of labor migration or repatriation, notes Ermek TOKTAROV, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies of the National Science Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. According to the political scientist, many factors contributed to the increase in dynamics. First of all, it is economic: the working population moves to centers of economic growth to increase their level of income, professional growth, and self-realization.
Red zone. Is there a way out of the impasse? 05/21/2021 19:002559
The main reason for the increase in migration from Kazakhstan is that a certain part of the country’s population, despite the rosy assurances of the authorities, is not confident in the future, says ex-diplomat and public figure Kazbek BEYSEBAEV. Moreover, this trend is only intensifying. This is also facilitated by the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country, the expert notes.
“Simply put, life is becoming more difficult and there are great fears about the future. Another important reason for the increase in migration is that it is already clear to everyone that a transit period is beginning in Kazakhstan. This also raises serious concerns. Therefore, those who have the opportunity leave or are preparing to leave. Some remain, but their children and relatives have already settled abroad. Many people specifically send their children to study abroad. Unfortunately, specialists and people of creative age are leaving, and this is a big minus for the country,” says Kazbek Beisebaev.
Kairat ALIMBEKOV – “Kazakhstan is gradually becoming a mono-national state” – Kazakhstanis continue to leave the country forever. Many more people leave the country than come to live here. However, the population, although slowly, is growing. This happens due to an increase in the birth rate. Everything is heading towards the fact that Kazakhstan will turn from a multinational country into a mononational one.
Historically, people of many nationalities live in Kazakhstan: Kazakhs, Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, Uighurs, Koreans, Tatars, Chechens, Turks, Uzbeks. However, this diversity is gradually disappearing. There are several factors turning Kazakhstan into a mononational state.
The first fact is emigration. Many people of different nationalities leave the republic, but a significantly smaller number of people come for permanent residence.
Kazakhstan does not have intellectual sovereignty 05.24.2021 15:301825
The second factor is the rising birth rate. Despite the negative migration balance, the population of Kazakhstan is gradually increasing, the reason is the appearance of a large number of children.
Kazakh political scientist Sultanbek SULTANGALIEV considers the transformation taking place in Kazakh society to be a natural process: “The demographic situation in Kazakhstan does not inspire me with fear at all, because the key factor in this aspect is, in my opinion, the increase in the birth rate of the population, and this indicator in the country has a stable positive trend . Naturally, we observe the greatest increase in the birth rate, both in quantitative and percentage terms, among the Kazakh population. Taking into account the emigration of people of non-Kazakh nationality from the country in the near future, specifically in five years, the demographic picture in Kazakhstan from a national perspective will be strikingly different from what we observe even now. The change in the demographic situation will significantly affect all aspects of the socio-political and cultural life of Kazakhstani society. These changes should be perceived as an objective process that is characteristic of any developing society.”
But at the same time, many Kazakhstanis express concern that smart, educated people, good technical specialists or creative intelligentsia are leaving the country. Apparently, the reason for the emigration of the smart and educated is the underdevelopment of Kazakhstani science and, accordingly, the lack of prospects. It is not yet noticeable that the state is trying to somehow reverse this trend.
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More than 21.5 thousand people have left Kazakhstan since the beginning of the year
Even the pandemic did not stop our compatriots. Moreover, over the past three months, according to statistical data, almost the same number of people left Kazakhstan as in the first half of the year. Experts even name the age, nationality and education of those leaving the country.
Vyacheslav Khegay is a Kazakh citizen, an education manager. The man is 33 years old, 3 of which he has lived in Korea. He says the decision to leave his native country was spontaneous. Disagreements with his superiors forced him to resign. Then, without thinking twice, he and his family moved from Taraz to Incheon. Now Vyacheslav works at a wallpaper factory.
Vyacheslav Khegai, resident of Incheon:
— Working in a factory, a person receives at least 2 thousand dollars, which is about 700 thousand in tenge. In Kazakhstan, I don’t think it’s possible for an ordinary person to earn that kind of money without connections and acquaintances. You receive 2 thousand dollars and can afford to rent a house, dress, feed your family. I feel quite normal here.
And this is the capital’s resident Shakhmurat Kudaiberdiev. His company also produces wallpaper. True, photo wallpaper, but the meaning is clear. The director of the enterprise says that he does not offend employees, he pays decent wages and, most importantly, on time. During quarantine, everyone went remote, but work was not suspended.
Shakhmurat Kudaiberdiev, director of a photo wallpaper production company:
— The bonus motivation system is effective. Salaries can vary from 150 to 400 thousand tenge per month, depending on the workload of the enterprise.
So the difference in salaries turns out to be almost two, or even three times. Kazakhstanis go abroad for big money. About 10 thousand Kazakhstanis work in South Korea alone, most of them are ordinary illegal workers. But neither the recent death of two of our compatriots in this country, nor the pandemic stops the outflow of our fellow countrymen.
And now the official data. The Statistics Committee provides figures: over six months, about 11 thousand people emigrated from Kazakhstan for permanent residence. Over the past 3 years, about 120 thousand people have left the country. The CIS countries are predominantly becoming the new “home” for Kazakhstanis.
Galymzhan Suleimenov, senior inspector for special assignments of the migration service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
— Analysis shows that more than 90% of citizens travel to the Russian Federation. The next popular destination is Germany, with 1,400 people leaving last year. Next is Poland, 350 people left for the USA.
Why are educated and young people leaving the country? Every third emigrant has a higher education, every fourth has a secondary education. Experts call this trend “brain drain.” A quarter of those leaving are people under 28 years old. According to the Center for Analytical Research, the majority of Kazakh students choose Russia for their studies and subsequent emigration.
There is another trend: those who plan to stay in a neighboring country after graduating from university still return to their homeland after several years of work.
Alibek Tazhibaev, director of the center for analytical research “Eurasian Monitoring”:
— About 40% of the students we surveyed plan to stay. 22% immediately say that they want to stay, and 18% of respondents plan to move on to a third country after receiving an education at leading Russian universities. The trend is being monitored, people want to come back, especially the younger generation, in order to apply and implement the acquired knowledge.
Foreign specialists, on the contrary, come to Kazakhstan with pleasure. True, these are mainly foreign top managers. They are, of course, paid more than their Kazakh colleagues. On the one hand, this has a positive effect on the Kazakh economy, on the other, it is not good, experts say. Our fellow countrymen could do the same work, but for some reason they don’t pay so much for domestic knowledge and skills.
Kanat Kasym, lawyer:
- Service sector, construction market, oil sector, management - Europe, construction market - India and the Republic of Turkey.
Recent studies have shown the main reasons for leaving Kazakhstan: the socio-economic situation, corruption, uncertainty about the future and the active policies of neighboring countries to attract migrants.
Meruert Shukueva, correspondent:
— You can make a portrait of an emigrant. This is a person 25-35 years old with a higher education, mainly technical. While it is still possible to create an image of someone leaving Kazakhstan, the real scale of emigration is difficult to assess. Many of our compatriots go to other countries for study, internship, work, and simply stay somewhere illegally.
Authors: Meruert Shukueva, Vladislav Tsoi, Amanzhol Baigazin
Every third emigrant is Kazakh
Sociologist Olga Simakova , who believes that in the case of emigration, the devil is not as terrible as he is painted. She suggests looking at the problem not from the perspective of loss, but from the perspective of freedom of movement. There is no threat of depopulation in Kazakhstan, and fears from public opinion are caused by the fact that migration has acquired a specific age and ethnicity - economically active Slavs are leaving. The topic of migration began to be used as a manipulative tool.
Photo: agkipr.kz
Olga Simakova
In fact, the trend is shifting from ethnic migration to labor migration. 10% of the population would like to emigrate (that is, leave forever) , in 2017 there were 11% , and in 2004 - 18% . Of the 10% of potential emigrants, every second is Russian, every third is Kazakh, the majority are young, 77% are educated. In explanations of the reasons, subjective factors are reinforced, including the negativity of the country’s image and the “glass ceiling” for career and self-realization.
“They leave not because it’s bad here, but because there are no conditions for growth and self-realization,” Olga Simakova finished her presentation, opening the exchange of opinions.
